" Football Pools Xtra: Win-Draw-Loss System

Win-Draw-Loss System



The Win-Draw-Loss System is a very popular approach.



Here are the fundamental guidelines


The Win, Draw, Loss approach is really basic and considers the percentage of previous wins, draws, and losses over a specific period. By determining the number of wins, draws and losses for both the home and away sides and after that integrating them, it is possible to produce an analytical likelihood of the possible result of the game.




Here is how a common estimation is made



1. For a specific period the number of wins, losses, and draws are counted for each side. This might be for an entire season or you might want to have a rolling time duration, for example the last 6 months.


2. The percentage possibilities for home wins, draws, and away wins are then made. The home win percentage is determined as follows:



[(HW + AL) * 100] / overall number of matches,


where;


HW = number of home wins by home team.


AL = number of away losses by away team.



When you have a percentage possibility for each result a choice can be made on the most likely result.




Let's take a look at an easy example of how you might use this:



Firstly, you would gather the information for a given duration of time and for each of the 3 possible results, thus;


HW = number of home wins for home team.


HD = number of draws for home team.


HL = number of home losses for home team.


AW = number of away wins for away team.


AD = number of draws for away team.


AL = number of away losses for away team.



TOTAL GAMES = HW + HD + HL + AW + AD + AL.


HOME WIN = [(HW + AL)*100] / TOTAL GAMES.


DRAW = [(HD+AD)*100] / TOTAL GAMES.


AWAY WIN = [(HL + AW)*100] / TOTAL GAMES.



This provides you a percentage possibility for each of the 3 possible results.


Now lets extend this to offer 1, X, 2, 1X, and X2 forecasts.


To do this we can use a basic ballot system, here is how it works:



We first set 3 thresholds;


DRAW THRESHOLD = 35%.


AWAY THRESHOLD = 45%.


HOME THRESHOLD = 55%.



We thereafter initialise our ballot counts for each technique;.


DRAW P = 0.


HOME P = 0.


AWAY P = 0.



Now we compare each of the determined likelihoods with our thresholds to reach a vote count for each result;


If DRAW > DRAW THRESHOLD;


THEN


DRAW P = DRAW P + 3.



ELSE



HOME P = HOME P + 1.


AWAY P = AWAY P + 1.



IF AWAY WIN > AWAY THRESHOLD;


THEN


AWAY P = AWAY P + 3.



ELSE



HOME P = HOME P + 1.


DRAW P = DRAW P + 1.



IF HOME WIN > HOME THRESHOLD;


THEN


HOME P = HOME P + 3.



ELSE



DRAW P = DRAW P + 1.


AWAY P = AWAY P + 1.



This indicates that we now have an overall vote count for each of the 3 possible results.



Next we can deduce our final 1, X, 2, 1X, and X2 forecasts based on the ballot as follows;



IF HOME P > AWAY P AND HOME P > DRAW P;


THEN FORECAST = 1.


ELSE



IF AWAY P > HOME P AND AWAY P > DRAW P;


THEN FORECAST = 2.


ELSE


IF DRAW P > HOME P AND DRAW P > AWAY P;


THEN FORECAST = 3.


ELSE


IF HOME P = DRAW P AND HOME P > AWAY P;


THEN FORECAST = 1X.


ELSE


IF AWAY P = DRAW P AND AWAY P > HOME P;


THEN FORECAST = X2.


ELSE


IF HOME P = DRAW P AND HOME P = AWAY P;


THEN FORECAST = X.



Now its your turn.


Obviously you might pick to utilize different values to those stated above and by exploring you might develop much better values to utilize. You might develop much better thresholds and choose to gather information over any duration of time you like. Trying out new threshold values and durations will let you know the very best settings for you to use.




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