" Football Pools Xtra: Score Prediction System

Score Prediction System



The Score Prediction approach utilizes a team's goal performances over a specific time period in order to forecast the score of the game involved.





Here are the standard guidelines


This is an example of a match and each team's respective goal count for the last 5 games:


Home team: 3-3 1-0 4-1 0-2 2-1.

Away team: 0-1 2-2 0-3 6-0 1-3.


We can work out some figures from this as follows:


Home teams goals scored for = HGF = 3 + 1 + 4 + 0 + 2 = 10.

Away teams goals scored for = AGF = 1 + 2 + 3 + 0 + 3 = 9.

Home teams goals against = HGA = 3 + 0 + 1 + 2 + 1 = 7.

Away teams goals against = AGA = 0 + 2 + 0 + 6 + 1 = 9.


Now we can work out points for each team based upon the goals they have actually scored and the goals they have conceded as follows:


Home goal points = HGP = HGF + AGA = 10 + 9 = 19.

Away goal points = AGP = HGA + AGF = 7 + 9 = 16.


And now we can get a difference:


Goal points difference = GPD = HGP - AGP = 19 - 16 = 3.


Now we might categorize this as follows:


GPD > +2 then home win.

GPD < -2 then away win.

GPD = -2 then draw.


These specifications are of course arbitrary, but with experience you can fine-tune them. Now we must use the GPD and one of three tables.




Here are the tables...



Home Win Score Prediction:


HOME AWAY HGSP GOALS AGSP > 0.


> 11 > 17 > 26.

> 49 6 0 1 2 3.

> 43 5 0 1 2 3.

> 37 4 0 1 2 3.

> 30 3 0 1 2.

> 23 2 0 1.

> 0 1 0.



Away Win Score Prediction:


AWAY HOME.


AGSP GOALS HGSP > 23 > 18 > 13 > 0.

> 34 5 3 2 1 0.

> 29 4 3 2 1 0.

> 24 3 2 1 0.

> 18 2 2 1 0.

> 0 1 2 1 0.



Draw Score Prediction:


HOME + AWAY SCORE.


> 44 3-3.

> 34 2-2.

> 24 1-1.

> 0 0-0.


Considering that our match has actually produced a home win forecast then we should utilize the HOME WIN SCORE PREDICTION table to get our score forecast. To do this we need to determine another specification, that of home goal score points as follows:


HGSP = HGP + all goals scored by home team of 3 or more in a match + all goals against the away side of 3 or more.


Therefore HGSP = 19 + 7 + 6 = 32.


Now we do the exactly the same for the away team:


AGSP = AGP + all goals scored by away team of 3 or more in a match + all goals against the home team of 3 or more.


Therefore AGSP = 16 + 6 + 3 = 25.


In the home win score prediction table, we go to HOME > 30 which provides us 3 goals for the home team and go to AWAY > 17 providing us 2 goals for the away team. Therefore, the outcome is anticipated as a 3-2 home win.



Now its your turn


Obviously you might pick to utilize different values to those stated above and by experimenting, you might create much better values to utilize.

Good luck!



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