" Football Pools Xtra: Simple Sequence System

Simple Sequence System



The Simple Sequence technique is not simply a single approach as there are lots of methods of developing a basic approach, and you can develop your own. One method is to utilize a weighting element on each of a series of games.



Here are the fundamental guidelines


A variety of matches are utilized to recall from the forecast date. Let's state that our team has the outcomes listed below (most current on the right hand side):


W D L L W.


This would provide the following points:


3 + 1 + 0 + 0 + 3 = 7.


Now to take into consideration current form, each is provided a weighting element, so the earliest match is multiplied by 1 up to the most recent match being multiplied by 5. Obviously this will vary depending upon the number of matches you use, but for this example it gives us the following:


3 * 1 + 1 * 2 + 0 * 3 + 0 * 4 + 3 * 5 = 20 points.


Now let's state that the away team playing against the team above has the following record:


W W D D D.


They will have:


3 * 1 + 3 * 2 + 1 * 3 + 1 * 4 + 1 * 5 = 21 points.


The points difference HOME v AWAY = 20 - 21 = -1.


Now, depending how you categorize this, it might represent an away win, i.e. all matches listed below a points difference of 0 = away win, or it could be classified as a draw.



Let's take a look at an example:



For our example we will utilize the last 10 games played by each team. That's the last 10 home games for the home side, and the last 10 away games for the away side.


The match is between Middlesbrough and Bolton Wanderers in the English Premiership played on Jan 20, 2007.



Middlesbrough


L L W W W D L D W W.


This offers;

0 * 1 + 0 * 2 + 3 * 3 + 3 * 4 + 3 * 5 + 1 * 6 + 0 * 7 + 1 * 8 + 3 * 9 + 3 * 10.


This equates to;

0 +0 +9 +12 +15 +6 +0 +8 +27 +30 = 107.



Bolton

L W W W D L L W W L.


This offers;

0 * 1 + 3 * 2 + 3 * 3 + 3 * 4 + 1 * 5 + 0 * 6 + 0 * 7 + 3 * 8 + 3 * 9 + 0 * 10.


this equates to;

0 +6 +9 +12 +5 +0 +0 +24 +27 +0 = 83.


The difference is;

107 - 83 = +24.


This could be identified as a home win. However, depending upon your selected limit levels, it could be classified as a draw.



Now its your turn:


Of course you might select to utilize different values to those stated above and by experimenting, you might come up with much better values to utilize. You might likewise select to utilize all home and away games played by each team in your computations rather of simply home games for the home team and away games for the away team.


You may choose to have different limit levels than those shown above. You may also find it beneficial to plot actual results against the Simple Sequence method predictions to see how many actual draws fall in the away win, draw, and home win prediction zones.


Good luck!



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